AGP Executive Report

Syria–Iraq trade & energy routes: Iraq is planning to boost oil exports via Syria and Turkey to about 650,000 bpd, expanding northern pipeline and overland flows as Hormuz risk disrupts Gulf shipping. Water & agriculture pressure: Raqqa and Deir ez-Zor are reeling from Euphrates swings—flooding that damaged farmland, displaced families, and revived debate over dam releases and who controls river management. Security & civilian access: Israeli forces reportedly kidnapped five civilians in Quneitra, with monitors saying repeated incursions also restrict farmland and grazing—directly hitting local livelihoods. Legal accountability: Syria detained a former Assad-era commander on war crimes allegations, part of a broader push to prosecute figures tied to past abuses. Regional infrastructure spillover: Turkey is pushing to modernize and extend the Hejaz Railway toward Oman as an alternative trade corridor—an indirect bet on Syria-linked connectivity. Lebanon aviation (near-Syria impact): Lebanon reopened René Moawad Airport in Akkar, aiming to ease pressure on Beirut and improve northern transport links.

Humanitarian Aid in Syria: Qatar Red Crescent Society says its Eid al-Adha Sacrifice Campaign reached 247,344 beneficiaries across Qatar and 13 countries, including Syria, with meat delivered via home and distribution points under Sharia rules and safety standards. Trade Routes Under Pressure: Turkey’s transport minister says the modernised Hejaz Railway could be extended to Oman, using an initial Türkiye–Aleppo link to create an alternative corridor amid Strait of Hormuz risk. Regional Energy Shock: With Hormuz effectively closed since late February, analysts warn trade and energy turmoil could deepen if disruptions last until September, forcing supply-chain reshuffles. US-Iran Asset Talks: Reuters reports the US is considering redirecting frozen Iranian assets to fund reconstruction and compensate Gulf damages, as tensions and drone/missile incidents continue. Syria-linked Logistics: World Food Programme says fortified biscuits reached Afghanistan after routing through nine countries due to border closures and Hormuz disruption, with Syria included in the transit path. Syrian Industry Signals: Jordan’s industrial exports rose 2.6% in Q1 2026, with exports to Syria up 44%, hinting at regional demand despite instability. Civil Defense Response: Syrian Civil Defense reported responding to 181 fires (including 45 in fields and crops) and 19 traffic accidents, with one death and 24 injuries.

Tourism & Skills: Libya’s envoy to Syria, Walid Ammar, met Syria’s tourism minister Mazen al-Salhani in Damascus to revive cooperation on tourism investment, training, and support for traditional and handicraft industries, with plans for joint tourism projects. Port & Logistics: Syria’s Latakia port handled over 2 million tons of cargo in the first five months of 2026, moving 273 vessels and about 120,000 containers, citing modernization, faster customs, and new equipment to boost efficiency. Trade Documentation: Jordan’s Amman Chamber of Commerce reported a 24.1% jump in certificates of origin value to JD624 million in Jan–May 2026, with Syria among key destinations (1,628 certificates). Agriculture & Food Supply Chains: WFP says fortified biscuits for Afghanistan reached after a 15,000 km detour through nine countries due to border and Strait of Hormuz closures, including routing via Syria, with delivery planned for 172,000 schoolchildren. Security & Disruption Risk: Israeli forces detained a civilian during an incursion in Quneitra’s Ain Zivan area and conducted raids in al-Asha, raising concerns for southern Syria’s stability and agricultural land.

Port & Logistics: Latakia Port handled over 2 million tons of cargo in the first five months of 2026, moving goods via 273 vessels and about 120,000 containers, with modernization aimed at faster handling, simplified customs, and better turnaround times. Energy & Courts: Syria’s civil court dismissed a lawsuit challenging electricity price increases, citing lack of jurisdiction over the contract and a 2025 decision—another sign of how pricing disputes are getting stuck in procedural hurdles. Agriculture & Water Stress: Reports say flooding in eastern Syria damaged farmland and swamped grain areas, with farmers facing renewed losses as water levels surge. Cyber & Security: ESET flagged a new Android spyware campaign targeting Arabic-speaking users, using fake utility and war-update sites to deliver stealth monitoring. Industry & Investment Outlook: Coverage highlights Syria’s push toward “bankable projects” and a recovery approach shifting toward partnerships, while private-sector talks in Damascus signal renewed interest in investment-ready industrial plans. Regional Trade Links: Syria’s Mediterranean ports are again in focus as Iraq moves to export oil via Syrian routes, underlining how logistics corridors remain central to regional industry.

Syrian Energy & Courts: Damascus’ Civil Court dismissed a suit against the energy minister over electricity price hikes, citing lack of jurisdiction, keeping the tariff dispute in limbo. Nuclear & Research: Syria’s Atomic Energy Commission met the IAEA in Vienna to discuss converting its Miniature Neutron Source Reactor from highly enriched to low-enriched fuel, aiming to support peaceful research and staff training. Agriculture & Food Security: Syria’s agriculture ministry met FAO to expand support for farmers and livestock breeders, and to coordinate emergency help for Euphrates flooding impacts in Deir ez-Zor and Raqqa. Recovery & Investment: A broader push for “bankable projects” and a new economic identity is highlighted as Syria seeks foreign investment and practical recovery steps. Regional Trade & Infrastructure: Syria’s role in regional connectivity remains in focus as Iraq and the Kurdistan Region move ahead with major road upgrades linking corridors toward Syria and Jordan.

Syria–Algeria Economic Push: Syrian FM Asaad Al-Shibani met Algeria’s President Tebboune in Algiers, urging deeper ties across energy, economy, investment, agriculture, mining, transport, and training, and agreed to reactivate joint cooperation mechanisms including a business council. Banking & Recovery Governance: Syria’s Central Bank Governor Mohammad Safwat Raslan said the next phase will be based on institutional work and coordinated planning, rejecting improvised decisions as the private sector dialogue continues. Private Sector as the Engine: Damascus formally adopted a “strategic partnership” model between public and private sectors, replacing outright privatization as the recovery framework. Agriculture Readiness: Hasakah’s Grain Establishment is preparing to receive 800,000–1,000,000 tons of wheat in 2026, after weather delayed harvesting and shifted receiving start dates. Tourism & Services: Damascus announced a new Tourism Police Unit to guide visitors and improve safety along tourism routes, alongside hotel rehabilitation plans. Water & Risk: Euphrates flooding continues to disrupt eastern Syria’s farmland and livelihoods, underscoring fragile water management. Safety on the Ground: War remnants killed two in Deir Ezzor as residents dismantled unexploded ordnance, highlighting ongoing post-conflict hazards.

Syria’s oil & gas push: Syria is preparing tenders to upgrade refining capacity after refineries ran at just ~20% of pre-war levels, with plans to refurbish Baniyas and potentially build a new 150,000 bpd refinery, with US technology firms flagged as possible partners. Private sector recovery model: Damascus has adopted a “strategic partnership” approach between the public and private sectors, replacing outright privatization in its recovery plan, and held a national dialogue with business to shape the new economic framework. Banking governance: The Syrian Central Bank governor said the next phase will rely on institutional work and coordination, ruling out improvised decisions as the private sector dialogue tackled banking-sector concerns. Tourism industry support: Syria announced a new Tourism Police Unit to guide visitors and improve safety along tourism routes, alongside hotel rehabilitation and a major $300m business-center plan aimed at attracting regional investment. Regional trade infrastructure: Türkiye is discussing reviving the Hejaz Railway and extending it toward Oman, with an initial link via Aleppo and potential connections through Syria and Jordan—positioned as an alternative corridor to Hormuz. Agriculture & water stress: Euphrates-related flooding and water-level swings are disrupting farming and livelihoods, with reports of damage to farmland and urgent government measures in eastern Syria.

Syria Recovery & Investment: Damascus is pushing sanctions relief as a key lever for reconstruction and private investment, after a phone call between President Ahmed al-Sharaa and U.S. President Donald Trump highlighted the sanctions file as central to restarting the economy. Oil & Gas Logistics: Iraq is accelerating crude exports by expanding pipeline routes and lining up a Syria-linked Mediterranean option, with plans to ship Basrah crude via Baniyas and Tartous as Hormuz disruptions squeeze Gulf shipping. Water & Agriculture: A Syrian hydrologist warns illegal wells are driving a water “catastrophe,” urging authorities to shut hundreds of thousands of wells that drain aquifers and worsen spring and river depletion—an issue made sharper by Euphrates flooding that damaged farms. Security & Local Arms Control: Clashes in Zakya (Damascus countryside) again spotlight illicit weapons and the pressure on internal forces to reassert state control. Regional Transport Connectivity: Türkiye is planning to revive and extend the Hejaz Railway, starting with a link to Aleppo in Syria, aiming to build an alternative trade corridor beyond Hormuz. State-Building in Iraq: Iraq’s PM hosted Iranian-backed militia leaders to thank them for supporting a plan to place arms under state control—raising questions about how quickly armed groups will actually comply.

Oil & Exports: Iraq approved a major push to boost crude exports via Turkey’s Ceyhan and onward routes, aiming to lift flows from about 220,000 bpd to as much as 770,000 bpd within weeks, with additional plans involving Syria’s Mediterranean ports (Baniyas and Tartus) and the Basra–Haditha pipeline. Energy Infrastructure: Baghdad also moved to restart production at key Kurdistan fields after disruptions tied to attacks on energy infrastructure, signaling a faster recovery of output. Security & Arms Control: A fresh clash in Zakya, west of Damascus, left civilians caught in the crossfire and renewed pressure on authorities to curb illicit weapons and reassert state control. Tourism & Services: Syria announced a new Tourism Police unit to guide visitors and improve safety along recognized routes, as the country tries to revive tourism and attract investment. Finance: Damascus bourse trading rose on two large deals, lifting June 3 turnover to about SYP80.8mn. Market/Trade Context: Turkey’s push to modernize the Hejaz Railway and link it toward Aleppo and beyond was framed as an alternative corridor to reduce reliance on chokepoints like Hormuz.

Syria’s private sector reboot: Syria’s National Private Sector Conference opened in Damascus, with the Economy and Industry Ministry pushing a new public-private model to attract investment and rebuild value chains, while UNDP and Japan support the agenda. Food security pressure on farmers: Wheat growers across Syria protested government procurement prices, arguing the $330/ton rate won’t cover seed, fertilizer, irrigation and haulage costs as the Syrian pound slides—raising questions about how far “free-market” rhetoric can go. Agriculture hit by water extremes: Eastern Syria’s Euphrates flooding and receding levels have disrupted farmland and forced emergency response, with reports of thousands of families affected and farmland swamped or damaged. Land access and livelihoods: Displaced Alawi farmers fear losing livelihoods again as land disputes and state agricultural management delay returns ahead of the pistachio season. Reconstruction and industry outlook: Coverage also frames Syria as a high-risk but high-potential reconstruction market, with calls for “bankable projects” to unlock foreign investment.

Private Sector Push: Syria’s first National Conference for Dialogue with the Syrian Private Sector in Rural Damascus brought finance, transport and agriculture ministers together with business and UNDP/Japan partners, aiming to shape a new growth and reconstruction phase after years of war damage. Food Security Pressure: Wheat farmers in Raqqa and Daraa are protesting government wheat procurement prices they say don’t cover costs, putting Syria’s bread-and-wheat system under fresh strain. Agriculture Hit by Floods: Deir ez-Zor’s Euphrates flooding submerged 16,870 dunums of farmland, knocked out water stations and damaged pumping networks, with emergency repairs underway. Water-Logistics Link: Turkey’s water releases and rising Euphrates flows are driving emergency measures across eastern Syria, while displaced families face renewed disruption. Energy & Trade Routes: Turkey is discussing reviving a transport corridor through Syria and Jordan to reach Saudi and Gulf markets, with logistics framed as a way to move goods and food more reliably. Regional Energy Signals: Azerbaijan’s gas exports and supply plans were highlighted at Baku Energy Week, including deliveries to Syria, as regional energy security remains a top theme. Aid Funding Gap: WFP suspended food assistance for 135,000 Syrian refugees in Jordan host communities due to a funding shortfall, while camp support continues at reduced levels.

Industrial Parks & Investment Climate: Syria is being urged to focus on “bankable projects” and deliver predictable laws, clear regulations, and transparency to unlock foreign investment as sanctions unwind and trade ties reopen. Energy Exports to Syria: Azerbaijan’s SOCAR says it will keep expanding natural gas production and diversify exports, noting Syria has now joined the list of markets receiving Azerbaijani gas. Euphrates Floods Hit Agriculture: Heavy rainfall and increased flows from Turkey have driven exceptional Euphrates flooding, damaging farmland, homes, bridges, and disrupting irrigation and drinking-water pumping in Deir ez-Zor and Raqqa. Water Infrastructure Response: Syria’s energy ministry and local authorities are responding as water levels rise and then recede, with reports of rehabilitation and reactivation of water stations in affected areas. Industrial Supply Chain Disruption: Reports also highlight how regional instability and logistics constraints are complicating trade and reconstruction planning, even as interest in rebuilding grows. Cross-border Energy Planning: Türkiye’s energy officials say electricity interconnection projects linking Azerbaijan, Georgia, Türkiye, and Bulgaria could eventually extend toward Central Asia, with Syria cited as benefiting from regional gas initiatives.

Syrian Reconstruction & Energy: Turkey and Azerbaijan say gas deliveries to Syria are already supporting power-plant restarts and reconstruction, with Erdoğan stressing the initiative’s role in regional stability. Trade & Industry Signals: Jordan reports Q1 2026 exports up to JD 2.129bn, led by garments, potash and pharmaceuticals, with big gains to Syria—an indirect read-through for Levant supply chains. Euphrates Floods Disrupt Production: Eastern Syria faces renewed displacement and farmland damage as Euphrates levels rise, with emergency response and water-flow adjustments hitting local livelihoods. Southern Syria Security Impact: Enab Baladi reports an Israeli shooting incident injuring a livestock herder in Daraa, a reminder of how conflict risk directly affects rural work. Regional Food Costs: WFP warns Lebanon’s displacement crisis is pushing food further out of reach, with access and funding constraints threatening markets. Energy Trade Expansion: Azerbaijan says it exported 16.7 bcm of gas to Europe over the past year and highlights ongoing projects that could deepen regional energy links.

Energy & Trade: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan says gas supplies to Syria via a joint Türkiye-Azerbaijan initiative will back Syria’s development and regional security, pointing to major pipeline projects and continued energy cooperation. Sanctions & Reconstruction: Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa and US President Donald Trump discussed Syria’s economic recovery, with Damascus urging removal of remaining US sanctions to unlock reconstruction and investor confidence. Water, Agriculture & Industry: Euphrates flooding in eastern Syria is easing after damaging farms and displacing thousands in Raqqa and Deir ez-Zor, with authorities linking the surge to Turkey’s upstream dam releases and warning of ongoing impacts on the breadbasket. Diplomacy & Regional Logistics: The US expanded Tom Barrack’s role as special envoy for Syria and Iraq while he remains ambassador to Türkiye, signaling tighter diplomatic oversight as regional conditions shift. Security Shock to Supply Chains: Israel conducted fresh ground incursions into southern Syria (Quneitra and Daraa), adding instability risk for cross-border movement and local production. Regional Energy Security: Turkey’s proposed maritime bill and plans for a two-way gas pipeline to occupied areas keep drilling and resource competition in the Eastern Mediterranean in focus.

Euphrates Flood Response: Floodwaters in eastern Syria’s Deir Ezzor and Raqqa are now receding after displacing thousands and damaging farms during the wheat harvest, with authorities citing reduced releases from the Tabaqa dam and emergency rescue work after bridge collapses and isolated communities. Water-Energy Governance: Syria’s energy ministry says it has started operational steps to gradually cut Euphrates inflows after Turkey’s Ataturk Dam releases, shifting the crisis from drought management to flood control and infrastructure protection. Reconstruction & Sanctions: President Ahmed al-Sharaa held a phone call with U.S. President Trump focused on economic recovery, with sanctions relief framed as key to unlocking investment, jobs, and reconstruction momentum. Trade & Logistics Friction: A report says Iraqi oil exports via overland tankers to reach markets through Syria are being choked by bureaucratic red tape, including security-clearance paperwork that can delay shipments for weeks. Regional Energy Ambitions: Turkey is pushing ahead with plans for a bidirectional gas pipeline to occupied Cyprus and a parallel power interconnection, aiming to strengthen its role as a regional energy hub. Industry Snapshot: Syria’s cement sector and broader reconstruction market are highlighted as high-risk but high-potential, as the country weighs rebuilding needs against ongoing instability.

Euphrates Flood Response: Syria’s Energy Ministry and emergency teams are battling sharp Euphrates rises that have hit Deir Ezzor and Raqqa, affecting about 2,400 families, flooding farmland, and disrupting water stations and crossings; authorities say they’ve started reducing inflows after technical steps at the Euphrates Dam, including spillway gate adjustments, while President Al Sharaa visited flood zones and the state moved to keep bakeries running with 1,050 tonnes of flour. Food & Livelihoods: In Iraq’s Kurdistan, a UN-backed hub helped refugee and host-community farmers sell directly to major supermarket chains, boosting earnings by up to 48% after fast-selling potato shipments to Carrefour. Reconstruction & Investment Signals: Syria is again pitching reconstruction opportunities in energy, infrastructure, logistics, real estate and digital services, with analysts citing huge needs but warning that sanctions and risk still scare off many investors. Industry & Security Spillover: A report says US Congress is advancing a plan to deepen US-Israel defense tech cooperation, pointing to broader military-industrial integration that could shape regional industrial priorities.